HD DVD May Finally Be Dead… Only Three Years Too Late
from the still-time-to-salvage? dept
A few weeks ago, when we noted that it really looked like HD DVD might finally be done for, we were surprised to see the number of folks in the comments insisting that we were crazy, and HD DVD had a long future ahead of it. Well, it appears that future has been cut short. In the past week, Netflix, Best Buy and Wal-Mart all said they would sell exclusively Blu-ray players and discs going forward, squeezing out whatever last minute hope there was of rescuing HD DVD. Now reports are finally coming out that Toshiba has come to terms with the inevitable and will officially kill off HD DVD in the next week or so. The thing is, this is really three years too late. There were three years where a next generation DVD standard had an open market to dominate. Yet, in those three years, the ability to deliver videos online has grown tremendously, meaning that there’s even less of a reason today to upgrade than in the past. No, internet delivery of movie content isn’t ideal yet. It’s still much easier to use a disc — but the gap has closed quite a bit and it’s only going to get narrower — until internet delivery systems surpass any kind of disc-based system. It’s a classic “innovator’s dilemma” where internet delivery mechanisms are getting better at a rate much faster than next generation DVD systems. Those three years of fighting over standards is going to come back and bite everyone who spent all this time fighting over a standard only to miss the larger picture.
Filed Under: blu-ray, dvds, hd-dvd
Companies: best buy, netflix, toshiba, wal-mart
Comments on “HD DVD May Finally Be Dead… Only Three Years Too Late”
Amnesia?
Occasionally, I wonder if we suffer from long term memory loss.
When Sony introduced the record button on tape players, it created an issue with adoption with then-popular 8-track.
It happened with the advent of BetaMax, JVC pushed an inferior product with lower royalties to market. (There’s a reason why pros in the industry still stand behind formats that have come from the original- BetaCam, BetaCamSP, DigiBeta..) Beta isn’t dead, it’s used hourly to bring you content. I guarantee if you mutter JVC, VHS, or S-VHS in the presence of true professionals, to this day, they will turn their back on you.
So we saw this again when DVD and content-backed DIVX went to market about a decade ago. Circuit City had invested heavily into the product, and some analysts may say that it nearly bankrupted the company, and that the company hasn’t fully recovered from the PR and damage to their brand image.
Then there was MiniDisc, the DVD Recorder, XM Radio.
So it’s great to see Sony making it’s way back at the helm again.
I read something about Apple possibly buying Sony.
My advice: Go for it.
Re: Amnesia?
My only ask is that you bring Carl Yankowski back on board to oversee the Operations Side of the house. Assuming he wants it, that is.
Re: Amnesia?
So it’s great to see Sony making it’s way back at the helm again.
Don’t assume that a loss for Toshiba/HD-DVD is a win for Sony/Blu-ray. Consumers aren’t waiting in line to buy either product (especially with a recession looming). This could still turn out to be like the format battle between Super Audio CD and DVD Audio; a battle that nobody wins because the existing standard is good enough for most consumers.
Re: Re: Amnesia?
Don’t assume that a loss for Toshiba/HD-DVD is a win for Sony/Blu-ray. Consumers aren’t waiting in line to buy either product (especially with a recession looming). This could still turn out to be like the format battle between Super Audio CD and DVD Audio; a battle that nobody wins because the existing standard is good enough for most consumers.
Maybe, but remember, that the real company to woo is Samsung. They’ve long said that their aspirations are to “Be The Next Sony”. When Samsung announced last year that they would support the BluRay standard, it should have been apparent that it was over for HD-DVD.
Then they played the middle field and came to market with a hybrid. DVD really only became mainstream when Samsung came to market with a low-cost player.
Toshiba at its core is a chip manufacturer, who wants to proliferate the standard through creation of design specs. When DVD came about, remember it was a JV between Sony/Toshiba.
I imagine Toshiba learned some things from Denon and went to market with the SD-1001, or whatever the devil they call the first generation DVD player is. I own one, and had to pack it away when I got a Samsung DVD-N501. I was sad to see it go away. I also have a Toshiba SD-5something which I use because it has HDMI.
My baby, however is the Harman Kardon DVD-27 which has depreciated faster than a lead balloon because it doesn’t have HDMI… What a great piece of machinery. I’m eyeballing the DVD-47…
So sometimes I feel like I’m talking to myself. Anyone need a Director of Differentiating Strategy?
All I’ll say is that I can still barely stream YouTube videos on my crappy dsl connection, and when I do I have to stop whatever else I’m doing online until it finishes downloading. While I agree that Internet video is in the future, both the delivery capacity and, more importantly, the mindsets of people who want to own something physical have to change before the optical disc format has to worry.
Blueray has plenty of time.
But I don’t have a DVD player, so it doesn’t really matter to me. While DVD was a vast improvement in usability over VHS, Blueray is really just an improvement in quality — and even that jump isn’t nearly as big as the quality jump from VHS to DVD.
Playstation
Welp it looks as if its about time for me to purchase a PS3 now… I just went out a couple weeks ago and bought a HD-Drive for my 360 since I just got my HDTV… Ohh well I was going to buy one anyways… MGS4 is coming out soon and its only for Playstation so why not get one now…
I can look at the bright side anyways… At least HD DVD’s will go down in price and I can get them dirt cheep before they completely phase out and you can no longer get them…
I dunno
With the tests going on in Texas about possibly switching back to the whole “paying for what you use” situation, its obvious that the ISPs are looking for a reason to go back to that model. If all of the sudden people are downloading movies frequently, its much more likely they’ll use that as an excuse to start pay-per-byte or some sort of tiered service. People are forgetting there may be possible consequences of trying to go to movie downloads.
Re: I dunno
There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with paying for what you use – it’s how virtually everything else works.
I think the fear is that instead of dropping the bottom-price for low-usage customers, they will just bump high-users right into the highest tier.
I personally don’t have any trouble with the idea of pay-for-use (like my water and electricity and if I want pay-per-view movies), but without any real competition in most areas, regular market forces can’t work properly, and I DO fear that.
Re: Re: I dunno
Yes, but there’s talk that it can add on a couple extra dollars PER movie. I don’t have a problem with pay for what you use, except when its going backwards. It’s backwards to go from “unlimited” bandwidth at $xx a month to paying per use. It *used* to be that way. It shouldn’t go back. If they got a problem with capacity, they should increase it. The infrastructure should always be expanding. It’ll *never* be large enough for the rest of time.
how much did it take?
I wonder what Sony paid to win this war. You have to believe that they were stuffing envelopes full of cash to have all of these companies go exclusive. Looks like the one with all the money wins again. Just be ready for the price of Blu-ray to skyrocket. They have to pay for the bribery somehow. Oh, yeah, way to go microsoft. You’ve backed another loser!!!
Re: how much did it take?
Re: how much did it take?
I think that you have a very ill conceived notion of how things work in this world. Of course, money moves anything, just look at politics. HD DVD shelled out as much as BD for exclusive studios, but ultimately lost because consumers were buying BD over HD DVD at 2:1. The folks at the BD camp are smarter than to start increasing the prices of their product, that would be suicide and there has never been an increase in a product in the technology sector, to assume that there will be is ludicrous.
Re: Re: how much did it take?
No, the HD-DVD camp didn’t push out as much as Sony did by a long shot in payola. And as for consumers buying BD over HD-DVD check your numbers. PS3 games are counted at BlueRay media and are part of the numbers. Factor out games and look only at movies and they were about even. Consumers didn’t choose a format in this battle, Big Corporate Payola did. The consumers just get screwed.
DRM in BlueRay in the form of BD+ with REVOCATION ability is going to end up screwing people…mark my words.
Re: Re: how much did it take?
No, the HD-DVD camp didn’t push out as much as Sony did by a long shot in payola. And as for consumers buying BD over HD-DVD check your numbers. PS3 games are counted at BlueRay media and are part of the numbers. Factor out games and look only at movies and they were about even. Consumers didn’t choose a format in this battle, Big Corporate Payola did. The consumers just get screwed.
DRM in BlueRay in the form of BD+ with REVOCATION ability is going to end up screwing people…mark my words.
Re: Re: how much did it take?
No, the HD-DVD camp didn’t push out as much as Sony did by a long shot in payola. And as for consumers buying BD over HD-DVD check your numbers. PS3 games are counted at BlueRay media and are part of the numbers. Factor out games and look only at movies and they were about even. Consumers didn’t choose a format in this battle, Big Corporate Payola did. The consumers just get screwed.
DRM in BlueRay in the form of BD+ with REVOCATION ability is going to end up screwing people…mark my words.
Re: Re: how much did it take?
No, the HD-DVD camp didn’t push out as much as Sony did by a long shot in payola. And as for consumers buying BD over HD-DVD check your numbers. PS3 games are counted at BlueRay media and are part of the numbers. Factor out games and look only at movies and they were about even. Consumers didn’t choose a format in this battle, Big Corporate Payola did. The consumers just get screwed.
DRM in BlueRay in the form of BD+ with REVOCATION ability is going to end up screwing people…mark my words.
Re: Re: how much did it take?
No, the HD-DVD camp didn’t push out as much as Sony did by a long shot in payola. And as for consumers buying BD over HD-DVD check your numbers. PS3 games are counted at BlueRay media and are part of the numbers. Factor out games and look only at movies and they were about even. Consumers didn’t choose a format in this battle, Big Corporate Payola did. The consumers just get screwed.
DRM in BlueRay in the form of BD+ with REVOCATION ability is going to end up screwing people…mark my words.
Re: how much did it take?
JMAN594 — Look for prices to go up? Are you serious? Blu-Rays already cost $25-$30 at any store near my house, with anything cheaper being for an old or just plain horrible title.
I don’t think we’ll see the day where 1080p in 6.1 comes streaming over the net anytime soon. I have tried netflix’s streaming video service, and I use my TV as a monitor (so same screen/sound as the blu-ray player). Three words: NOT EVEN CLOSE.
The online version sounds horrible, looks horrible, and well, is just horrible compared to blu-ray. Maybe on a 15″ laptop monitor it would be acceptable, but on a big screen, forget about it!
Copy lockout again?
I’ll buy blue-ray as soon as I can rip them to my server so my kids grubby fingers aren’t all over them
It's All About The DRM
Blue Ray has the ability to kill compromised machines so that they will not play new content.
It is this DRM ability of KEY revocation that had the movie companies get on board.
Walmart Just got on board at the end because they see no future for HD DVD.
I will never buy a blue ray machine or disk, for two reasons Sony root kits and Sony root kit corporate arrogance.
Re: It's All About The DRM
Blue Ray has the ability to kill compromised machines so that they will not play new content.
It is this DRM ability of KEY revocation that had the movie companies get on board.
Nope. Both formats have that capability.
A slight correction to Mike’s article:
Best Buy has not gone Blu-Ray exclusive. They are simply going to push Blu-Ray as the preferred format for hi-def DVD.
From their press release:
“The company noted that it will continue to carry an assortment of HD-DVD products for customers who desire to purchase these products.”
anyone want to buy my laser dics?
My Way or NO way
Competition and innovation are good, but corporate arrogance and egos can be self defeating. The simple solution would have been to use a neutral third party professional organization to develop one open source standard for the high definition DVDs. Had this technology been introduced three years ago, we would be a lot further ahead.
Just today the New York Times ran an article Of All the Hurdles to a Merger, View on Technology Is the Highest. The article notes “Microsoft must figure out how to integrate the two complex and almost entirely incompatible software systems that the companies use to run their vast Internet data centers.”
While the Microsoft/Yahoo merger is significantly different that a DVD standard, it still points to the horrendous mess that one is faced with when one standard must eventually be implemented.
Re: My Way or NO way
This is no solution.
If they let a ‘3rd party’ or a standards committee come up with it, it would still be in the public comment phase and everyone would be arguing about it.
I highly doubt we would be any further ahead.
Less Reliability
An issue that is being recognized but does not yet seem to reached the public consciousness is that our DRM laden electronic equipment will be less “reliable”. As the the anti-piracy “codes” are cracked, legitimate consumers will be forced into an endless “upgrade” cycle for their equipment or it won’t work.
Further, the implementation of these DRM technologies appear to give the content providers the ability to purposely obsolete your equipment at will. Planned obsolescence.
To apply a Murphism, as these anti-piracy measures become more complicated, it will become increasingly more difficult to have a DVD device that will work with every DVD in a reliable manner.
The real victor is...
DivX.
Neither Sony nor Microsoft’s machines can play each other’s proprietary disk formats, but both do a fine job of playing DivX files. The business of buying movies on disk is officially irrelevant.
Internet delivery? Of 1080p HD content? Please point me to it. And I want it FAST! I have 4mbit downlink and grabbing a 6gig 720p movie on xbox live is an overnight deal. Sorry, but internet delivery of BlueRay/HD-DVD quailty content has a LONG LONG way to go before it’s “easier” or faster or can really compete.
For those that think the jump from DVD to HD-DVD/BlueRay is LESS than the jump from VHS to DVD, you need to do your homework. The resolution change is far greater. The capacity is greater. The menuing system is much better – well BlueRay will eventually catch up to HD-DVD now that it “won”.
So what did consumers win? A format that is DRM’d to the gills which will inevitably mean crappy experince and has already been hacked. Region coding is back, HD-DVD didn’t have it. A shifting standard 1.0, 1.1, 2.0 with no forward compatibility and no 2.0 players out but the PS3. A format owned by a company known for it’s high prices. Ya, sounds like a win for consumers.
I have read that Sony paid upwards of $1 billion in total payola to various studios to get them on board.
And yet MS got slammed for it’s $150 million payola.. funny.
Re: Re:
I have to agree with your first statement, the bandwidth needed for on-demand HD content just doesn’t exist yet and won’t for some time. To add to that though, most normal users (the average consumer) won’t even try to download movies anyway. My parents don’t want the trouble of going through all the hoops to download a movie much less a whopping HD movie. They want the ease of hooking up a player with one easy to use cable (HDMI)and getting the most out of their new widescreen LCD TV. Blu-ray or HD-DVD, it doesn’t matter to them, as long as it’s convenient.
Just as a thought though, as for the format being DRM’d, at least you actually own the disc. I’d be more worried about DRM on a downloaded movie.
Blu-Ray - not just for movies
Even if movies are delivered via the internet it will not mean the end of “physical media” – like Blu-Ray DVD.
People will still want and need to burn plenty of movies and other data to storage. Blu-Ray writers will be cheap and available in the near future.
Blu-Ray is a huge, 10-fold, improvement over regular DVD, and will only get better with multi-layer and such (until holographic is available).
Blu-Ray won the contest for two reasons – because it had more storage and because it had a much cooler name.
Owning the Mdia vs Streaming
The idea of streaming media vs physical ownership sounds like giving up too much control to the Media companys & ISPs.
With physical ownership, it’s you & your equipment, with streaming media as the method of content delivery an ISP is introduced into the loop along with whatever company or companys are delivering the product, then there’s possibly an OS to consider, the MPAA/RIAA, entertainment tax….
Maybe I missed your point Mike...
I understand that you ultimately believe that any delivery mechanism other then a digital delivery straight to the home is irrelevant given the direction that technology is pushing.
But I guess what I didn’t understand is why you think Toshiba and the HD-DVD crowd should have rolled over right out of the gate to Sony and Blue-ray? Sure I understand that one single format would have solidified the delivery medium for HD quality movies, but I guess I don’t see why you assume that it should have been Toshiba and not Sony that gave up the race.
In a lot of regards the HD-DVD format from a technical and market position had some advantages to it. While it lacked the total storage space of Blue-ray, it did however support more high end audio setups ( which to me is part of why you buy a premium video format ) and more importantly it provided disc players at a price that the average consumer could more easily cope with. The cheapest Blue-ray player is to no ones surprise the Sony Playstation 3.
It seemed to me that Toshiba focused its dollars on getting affordable players to the consumer, while Sony focused its dollars on contracts with studios and incentives to retailers. I realize that’s just capitalism, but for someone who normally plays the part of “defender of the consumer” I was a bit surprised to see you beating the dead horse of HD-DVD.
Re: Maybe I missed your point Mike...
That Guy,
Reports of Blu-Ray disc association offering money to the studios that chose to switch to that format were debunked.
There were no payoffs it was all rumors. The studios backed it primarily due to the larger storage capacity, leaving room for more features in the future.
Re: Re: Maybe I missed your point Mike...
Ya, about as debunked as MS giving $150million to Paramount/Dreamworks. They just call it something different and say it’s not related. But if it walks like a duck…. face it, both sides paid studios to move, they just don’t call it that.
The issue of larger capacity has been quite hased out on many sites. The jist of it is, HD-DVD used more recent higher quality and better compressing codec’s and so had more than enough space for extras and features. BlueRay used alot of MPEG2 and so NEEDED that extra storage space, and still didn’t put a lot of extras out there compared to HD-DVD. Web enabled content? Oh, ya… coming….some day for BlueRay…
The deciding factor other than the payola which isn’t called that of course, is the fear of piracy and the BD+ BlueRay offers. Natrually that’s been hacked and is pretty useless, but since when has that mattered to big companies who are always 10 pages back asking what book they were reading again…. (and lets not forget region coding too, I’m sure stuidos love that)
Re: Re: Maybe I missed your point Mike...
Nah, things like that just don’t happen (snicker).
Okay, now let's get down to business
Now that Bluray has won, I just want to see one thing… SD quality tv shows on BD. I want to be able to walk into walmart and walk out with an entire season of “House” on one BD disc. Those without HDTVs would love it because it would make things easier without having to feel like they have to “upgrade” their TV to enjoy BD movies or tv shows, plus it’s an incentive to upgrade to a new player. You could even have all 3 Bourne movies, or the Lord of the Rings on one BD. Just a thought sony (hint hint).
Most attractive entertainment media
Can any of you geeks even relate to a normal person’s perspective on how much “picture quality” is necessary to enjoy the latest bullet/blood/breast-fest??? The ability to print ever-tinier letters did not result in the production of ever-tinier books, did it?
Kind of disappointing that the /. crowd is responding to this matter like Tim Taylor in a Star Wars t-shirt.
Until the battle to determine who will own the DRM-laden media that promises to let me count the hairs on Will Farrell’s flabby body is fought to the death of the last media conglomerate lawyer, the real winning format, for me, is going to be….books.
Re: Most attractive entertainment media
Have you tried watching a DVD and blu-ray of the same movie on a 52″ HDTV? There is a noticeable difference.
I know for the moment this technology is not for everyone, but as prices go down these will find their way into more and more homes.
Re: Re: Most attractive entertainment media
He’s not saying there isn’t a difference he’s saying that there isn’t a good enough difference. I still watch downloaded TV shows on my modded Xbox at 420 (max S-Video). Good enough for me. (32″ LCD HDTV) and honestly, how many people have 7.1 surround systems?
What Mr. Troll may not realise is that some TVs out there won’t play 1080p properly. Just because it says 1080 on the box doesn’t mean crap. Look at the manual. There are TVs out there that say “Native resolution 1280×720”. How is that TV to do 1080? Isn’t 720 just an up-scaled DVD? How is the common person to know this?
why do the bad guys always win
rootkits for everyone
Fault
I blame Michael Imperioli.
How ridiculous to expect people to fall all over themselves to buy yet another version of ‘this is it…nothing else will matter…this is the best’ nonsense. For those of us with hundreds of VHS tapes, it was a matter of buying and putting away extra VHS players for when we can’t get them anymore. Then for those of us who have hundreds of DVDs, we will now have to put away extra DVD players for the future. Expecting us to get all excited about buying Blue-Ray is idiotic. The average, normal person isn’t going to continue to be manipulated like that. In the first place, who has the money these days? Enough is enough. There was nothing wrong with DVD. Who needs Blue-Ray? Just the companies making money, hand over fist, when ‘with-it’ nitwits dash out to have the very latest. Stupidity runs rampant.
Pat, blu-ray players can (and probably always will) play DVD’s so you dont have to worry there.
And if you have a 1080p tv of a decent size, play a DVD and blu-ray on it and you will see there is a diference. Agreed it’s not for everyone right now but when people get 1080p hdtv’s they will want movies that can output 1080p.
Pat, blu-ray players can (and probably always will) play DVD’s so you dont have to worry there.
And if you have a 1080p tv of a decent size, play a DVD and blu-ray on it and you will see there is a diference. Agreed it’s not for everyone right now but when people get 1080p hdtv’s they will want movies that can output 1080p.
Pat, blu-ray players can (and probably always will) play DVD’s so you dont have to worry there.
And if you have a 1080p tv of a decent size, play a DVD and blu-ray on it and you will see there is a diference. Agreed it’s not for everyone right now but when people get 1080p hdtv’s they will want movies that can output 1080p.
Pat, blu-ray players can (and probably always will) play DVD’s so you dont have to worry there.
And if you have a 1080p tv of a decent size, play a DVD and blu-ray on it and you will see there is a diference. Agreed it’s not for everyone right now but when people get 1080p hdtv’s they will want movies that can output 1080p.
DRM
And Toshiba thought that by including draconian DRM in their product that Hollywood would protect them? Hah! That’s what happens when you make deals with the devil. If Toshiba had had the consumers best interest in mind instead I bet their product would have been much more popular. As it is, they deserve what they got. Blu-ray deserves it too.
There is alot of talk about payouts above, there were rumors Sony gave huge cash sums to WArner to join them, this was later proven to be false, there was no payout (at least not to them.
And it’s been known for a long time that Universal got $150 million to go HD-DVD exclusive, but this was back when the format war began.
Neither side bribed anyone to change sides. Universal stuck with HD-DVD till it tanked so they wouldnt have to repay the $150 million. On another note Universal just announced they will begin making Blu-Ray as quick as possible following Toshiba’s announcement this morning that they have abandoned HD-DVD